CDC Forecasts Decreasing COVID-19 Related Fatalities

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published revised forecasted COVID-19 deaths as of June 14, 2021. Forecasts from 32 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for new or total deaths for at least one jurisdiction, will decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 600 to 3,600 new deaths likely reported in the week ending July 10, 2021.

The national ensemble predicts that a total of 604,000 to 613,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

These models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts, says the CDC.

As of June 11, 2021, the current 7-day moving average of new deaths (347) has increased 1.9% compared with the previous 7-day moving average.