UK's Coronavirus Variant Increases Disease Severity Risk

The UK's Department of Health and Social Care and Government Office for Science published a paper from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) on new coronavirus (COVID-19) variant B.1.1.7. on January 22, 2021.

This NERVTAG paper summarized its recent findings as follows: 'The variant of concern (VOC) B.1.1.7 appears to have substantially increased transmissibility compared to other variants and has grown quickly to become the dominant variant in much of the UK.'

An updated UK matched cohort analysis has reported a death risk ratio for VOC infected individuals compared to non-VOC of 1.65 (95% CI 1.21-2.25). Based on these analyses, there is a real possibility that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death than infection with non-VOC viruses.

However, an analysis of CO-CIN data has not identified an increased risk of death in hospitalized VOC B.1.1.7 cases. The analysis found an increased case severity may not necessarily be reflected by increased in-hospital death risk. Furthermore, it should be noted that the absolute risk of death per COVID-19 infection remains low.