Transmissions of Coronavirus Lineage B.1.1.7 in England

The Imperial College of London and others issued Report #42 on December 31, 2020, which stated, 'the SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, now designated Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) by Public Health England, originated in the UK in late Summer to early Autumn 2020. We examine epidemiological evidence for this VOC having a transmission advantage from several perspectives.'

'First, whole-genome sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing indicates the changing prevalence of different genetic variants through time. Phylodynamic modeling also indicates that this lineage's genetic diversity has changed in a manner consistent with exponential growth.'

'Second, we find that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S-gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing.'

'Third, we examine growth trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers at the local area level across England and show that the VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if the VOC has a different latent period or generation time. Available SGTF data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20-year-olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases.'